Eliminación del subsidio al diésel en Ecuador: análisis crítico de impactos socioeconómicos y estrategias de mitigación en el contexto de la política energética latinoamericana
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.71112/bwk23q05Palabras clave:
subsidios energéticos, política fiscal, Ecuador, Diesel, impacto socioeconómico, justicia distributiva, economía política latinoamericanaResumen
La presente investigación analiza críticamente la política de eliminación del subsidio al Diesel implementada en Ecuador mediante decreto presidencial, examinando sus implicaciones socioeconómicas en el contexto latinoamericano. A través de un enfoque metodológico mixto que combina análisis documental, revisión sistemática de literatura científica (68 estudios, 2017-2024) y análisis comparativo con seis experiencias regionales e internacionales, se evalúan las motivaciones económico-fiscales, los impactos diferenciados sobre diversos sectores poblacionales y productivos, así como las estrategias de mitigación implementadas internacionalmente. Los resultados evidencian que, aunque la eliminación del subsidio responde a imperativos de sostenibilidad fiscal—representando aproximadamente el 7% del presupuesto público ecuatoriano—, genera impactos desproporcionados sobre sectores vulnerables (pérdida de bienestar del 10% en el quintil más pobre versus 1.5% en el más rico), presiones inflacionarias significativas (2.8-4.5 puntos porcentuales proyectados) y riesgos de conflictividad social. El análisis comparativo mediante Qualitative Comparative Analysis identifica que el éxito de reformas similares depende críticamente de la combinación de legitimidad gubernamental previa, implementación gradual, compensaciones efectivas y comunicación transparente. Se concluye que la viabilidad de esta política depende de su articulación con mecanismos redistributivos efectivos y procesos participativos de legitimación social, cuestionando los enfoques tecnocráticos que priorizan eficiencia económica sobre justicia distributiva.
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